Data & Assumptions

1. How estimates are produced

The NOBOWA Farm Estimator combines commodity-specific calculation models with user-entered information and, where needed, NOBOWA reference assumptions.

Different commodities may use different production cycles, cost structures, technical assumptions and calculation methods.

2. User-entered information

Users may provide information such as location, scale, input prices, selling prices, production assumptions and other project-specific data.

Where reliable local information is available, it can improve the relevance of an estimate.

Users are responsible for checking information they enter before relying on an estimate or report.

3. NOBOWA reference assumptions

Where project-specific information is not provided, NOBOWA may supply reference assumptions as reasonable starting points for planning.

• market observations and market checks
• supplier or industry information
• agricultural research and technical publications
• production standards and technical references
• historical observations
• publicly available data
• other relevant evidence considered appropriate for the commodity model

4. Reference dates and freshness

Market-sensitive assumptions may have a reference date or model-data date.

Prices, costs and operating conditions can move quickly. Users should replace reference figures with reliable current local data where they have it.

The presence of a reference value does not mean that NOBOWA guarantees that value is currently obtainable in every market or location.

5. Location and transferability

Agricultural costs, prices, productivity and risks can vary between regions, districts, production systems and farms.

An assumption drawn from one location or production context may require adjustment before it is appropriate elsewhere.

6. Model calculations

Estimator results are calculated from defined relationships between inputs and assumptions.

Small changes in important assumptions can materially affect projected revenue, profitability, break-even values and cash recovery.

Users should test alternative scenarios where uncertainty is material.

7. Model and data updates

NOBOWA may update models, calculation logic, reference assumptions or research inputs as improved information becomes available.

Two estimates created at different times may therefore differ even where some user inputs are similar.

Where practicable, reports should identify relevant model or reference-date information so that users can understand the basis of the analysis.

8. Estimates are not observed farm results

An estimate is a projection produced from assumptions and inputs. It is not a record of actual farm expenditure, production or income unless those actual values have specifically been entered and treated as such.

9. Improving an estimate

Where users have reliable local or project-specific data, they should provide it to strengthen the estimate.

• supplier quotations
• actual local input prices
• confirmed selling prices or buyer terms
• farm-specific production records
• technical recommendations suited to the production system
• financing terms
• construction or equipment quotations

10. No guarantee of source accuracy

NOBOWA aims to use reasonable sources and research processes but does not represent that every external source is complete, error-free or suitable for every farm.

External data may be revised by its publisher or become outdated.

11. User responsibility

Users should review important assumptions before committing capital or making a material farm-investment decision.

For large, complex or high-risk projects, users should obtain additional technical, commercial, legal or financial advice as appropriate.